Emergency Ageing Austerity

A01

Stress-test gap

GSX:POP-005:A01 · Model assumption · Version 1.0

Connected conditional claims

C01GSX:POP-005:C01Among five packages that each close a hypothetical R150 billion annual ageing gap, the balanced transition has the lowest modelled welfare-loss index, 64.5. The low-visible-pain package, which leans on inflation, diffuse cuts, and continuing borrowing, scores 107.3 and leaves about R720 billion of emergency debt after ten years.high sensitivity

C02GSX:POP-005:C02The balanced transition in the model closes the gap with R57 billion of targeted pension measures, R24 billion of additional pre-funding, R26 billion of worker tax, R22 billion from a phased retirement-age change, R6 billion of weaker indexation, and R15 billion of continuing borrowing. It does not cut healthcare or non-age services.moderate sensitivity