Emergency Ageing Austerity

C01

Among five packages that each close a hypothetical R150 billion annual ageing gap, the balanced transition has the lowest modelled welfare-loss index, 64.5. The low-visible-pain package, which leans on inflation, diffuse cuts, and continuing borrowing, scores 107.3 and leaves about R720 billion of emergency debt after ten years.

GSX:POP-005:C01 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01Stress-test gapThe study imposes a hypothetical R150 billion annual ageing-related fiscal gap in constant 2026 rand. The figure is a stress-test target, about 5.6 percent of the R2.67 trillion in spending cited from the 2026 Budget Speech. It is not a forecast of the current deficit.high sensitivity

A02Thirteen capped leversThirteen policy levers are each capped at a visible but limited level. Their mature annual yields are scenario capacities assigned by the model, not official costings.high sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R01Five packages, each closing the R150 billion gapAll five selected packages close R150 billion once fully implemented. The balanced transition has the lowest welfare-loss index, 64.5. Low visible pain scores 107.3 and leaves about R720 billion of emergency debt after ten years.modelled

R02Balanced-transition packageThe balanced transition uses R57 billion of targeted pension measures, R24 billion of additional pre-funding, R26 billion of worker tax, R22 billion from a phased retirement-age change, R6 billion of weaker indexation, and R15 billion of continuing borrowing. It avoids healthcare and non-age service cuts.modelled

Registered supporting sources

Emergency Ageing Austerity · GSX:POP-005:PDF