Extreme Fiscal Pressure

C03

The permanent-suspension path shows an official debt ratio of 70 percent of GDP together with an augmented public burden of 165 percent of GDP and real output 42 percent below the no-shock path.

GSX:POP-012:C03 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01Common 2050 shockThe shock combines a severe pandemic, war and security mobilisation, and a recession. The immediate financing need is 14 percent of shocked-year GDP, about R1.23 trillion in constant 2026 rand.high sensitivity

A02Three governance pathsThe best case is a guardrailed constitutional emergency ending in 2052. The average case is an extended executive emergency to 2058. The worst case is a permanent constitutional suspension that has not ended by 2080.high sensitivity

A03Not legal adviceA literal suspension of the Constitution is modelled as constitutional rupture, not as an ordinary instrument under section 37.high sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R03Permanent constitutional suspension through 2080In the permanent-suspension case, official debt falls to 70 percent of GDP while hidden pension losses, arrears and deferred maintenance reach 95 percent of GDP. The augmented public burden is 165 percent of GDP. Real output ends 42 percent below the no-shock path, and the present value of output lost after 2050 is R65.8 trillion.modelled

Registered supporting sources

Extreme Fiscal Pressure · GSX:POP-012:PDF