How to Shrink a Country Without Breaking It

A01

Hypothetical Gauteng-scale city-region

GSX:POP-009:A01 · Model assumption · Version 1.0

Connected conditional claims

C01GSX:POP-009:C01In the central scenario, a 22.2 percent population decline by 2076 coincides with 3.5 percent more households. The same run can still produce a shortage of roughly 54,000 habitable homes after the city has lost 266,000 people.high sensitivity

C02GSX:POP-009:C02Managed shrinkage in the model keeps school-seat use near 82 percent rather than 47 percent and lowers the fifty-year present value of the modelled system bill from R384.8 billion to R366.2 billion.moderate sensitivity