How to Shrink a Country Without Breaking It

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In the central scenario, a 22.2 percent population decline by 2076 coincides with 3.5 percent more households. The same run can still produce a shortage of roughly 54,000 habitable homes after the city has lost 266,000 people.

GSX:POP-009:C01 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01Hypothetical Gauteng-scale city-regionThe model follows a hypothetical region from 2026 to 2076. It starts with 1.2 million people, about 420,000 households, and 430,000 habitable homes. The zones are stylised. They are not labelled real Gauteng neighbourhoods.high sensitivity

A02Central shrinkage pathIn the central scenario, population falls by 0.5 percent a year and average household size falls from 2.86 to 2.15.high sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R01Central scenario, deteriorating stock and misallocated repairsBy 2076 the region has 934,000 people and 434,000 households. Population is 22.2 percent smaller and the number of households is 3.5 percent larger. Misallocated construction and repairs can leave a shortage of roughly 54,000 habitable homes.modelled

Registered supporting sources

How to Shrink a Country Without Breaking It · GSX:POP-009:PDF

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This is a hypothetical region, not a forecast for a named Gauteng municipality. Housing demand follows households, so a falling headcount is not itself a falling housing demand. The shortage also depends on the stock deteriorating and on repairs being misallocated.