How to Shrink a Country Without Breaking It

C02

Managed shrinkage in the model keeps school-seat use near 82 percent rather than 47 percent and lowers the fifty-year present value of the modelled system bill from R384.8 billion to R366.2 billion.

GSX:POP-009:C02 · Modelled · Conditional · moderate sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01Hypothetical Gauteng-scale city-regionThe model follows a hypothetical region from 2026 to 2076. It starts with 1.2 million people, about 420,000 households, and 430,000 habitable homes. The zones are stylised. They are not labelled real Gauteng neighbourhoods.high sensitivity

A02Central shrinkage pathIn the central scenario, population falls by 0.5 percent a year and average household size falls from 2.86 to 2.15.high sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R02Managed shrinkage compared with delayed adjustmentManaged shrinkage keeps school-seat use near 82 percent rather than 47 percent and reduces the fifty-year present value of the modelled system bill from R384.8 billion to R366.2 billion. Under delayed adjustment, satellite and outer-edge coverage fall to 41 and 72 percent by 2076.modelled

Registered supporting sources

How to Shrink a Country Without Breaking It · GSX:POP-009:PDF

C02

The rand saving is not the whole argument. Delayed adjustment leaves the satellite town and outer edge at 41 and 72 percent maintenance coverage by 2076 while the centre stays above cost. Uniform policy can transfer money from viable networks to networks that no longer have enough users.