The Politics of an Ageing Electorate

M01

Electorate-versus-population cohort

GSX:POP-004:M01 · Model specification · Version 1.0

Connected conditional claims

C01GSX:POP-004:C01In the 2025 calibration, people aged 60 or older are 15.1 percent of adults but 20.7 percent of votes cast. Applying the 2024 age-turnout pattern produces a median voter aged 43, four years older than the median adult.moderate sensitivity

C02GSX:POP-004:C02Under the baseline path, voters aged 60 or older overtake voters aged 18 to 34 around 2039 and cast 46.0 percent of votes by 2100 if age-specific turnout stays fixed. The median voter remains below retirement age. Only the accelerated-ageing scenario produces a retired median voter within the century, in 2085 with fixed turnout and in 2081 with feedback.high sensitivity