The Price of Another Child

C02

Net lifetime fiscal value of an additional person is negative R610,000 in the weak labour market, positive R190,000 in the average labour market, and positive R960,000 in the strong one. None of the modelled programmes repays itself in the average case.

GSX:POP-006:C02 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01One million prospective householdsThe model follows one million prospective households for five years and assumes 350,000 births without a new policy. It tests seven stylised interventions.high sensitivity

A03Labour-market value of a birthDiscounted to birth, an additional person's lifetime production is worth R1.45 million in a weak labour market, R3.73 million in an average one, and R5.83 million in a strong one. Government also pays for education, health, services, and old age.high sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R02Lifetime fiscal value by labour-market caseNet lifetime fiscal value of an additional person is negative R610,000 in the weak labour market, positive R190,000 in the average labour market, and positive R960,000 in the strong one. None of the programmes repays itself in the average case.modelled

Registered supporting sources

The Price of Another Child · GSX:POP-006:PDF