A01One million prospective householdsThe model follows one million prospective households for five years and assumes 350,000 births without a new policy. It tests seven stylised interventions.
The Price of Another Child
When fertility support becomes cheaper than financing demographic decline.
PDF · 19 pages · 1.00 MB · 02.06 · GSX:POP-006
Study record · GSX:POP-006
When does fertility support become cheaper than financing demographic decline?
Evidence status: Modelled. Exploratory simulation. Version 1.0. Peer review: none. The paragraph under the title is the published summary.
Conditional answer · GSX:POP-006:C01
In the average run, the median cost of one permanently additional birth ranges from about R720,000 for free childcare to R4.18 million for a parent tax exemption. The targeted family package costs about R780,000 per added birth and produces nearly 99,000 additional births per million prospective households. A cash top-up costs about R1.76 million per added birth and produces only about 12,000.
Evidence status: Modelled. Sensitivity: high. Depends on GSX:POP-006:A01, GSX:POP-006:A02. The largest payment is not the cheapest birth. A programme can pay households that would have had the child anyway, or it can only move the timing. The cost figures are medians from a stylised model, with wide 10th-to-90th percentile ranges in the manuscript.
C01
Related questions
- What is the fiscal comparison between supporting another child and financing an older population?
- How does population decline change the public cost of low fertility?
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Assumptions
Assumptions
These are the registered model assumptions. A result stays conditional on the ones a claim names.
A02Only completed extra births countA birth paid for by a programme may be unchanged, brought forward, or permanently additional. Only the permanently additional group is credited as a lasting demographic response.qualitative not a scalar
A03Labour-market value of a birthDiscounted to birth, an additional person's lifetime production is worth R1.45 million in a weak labour market, R3.73 million in an average one, and R5.83 million in a strong one. Government also pays for education, health, services, and old age.3.73 million constant rand of lifetime production, average labour market
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Model
Model
The registered model statement. It is a scenario model, and the manuscript remains the full specification.
M01Additional-birth cost modelThe model separates births that would have happened, births that are brought forward, and births that permanently add to completed family size. Programme cost is judged against the permanently additional group and against the future fiscal value of that person.GSX:POP-006:M01
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Results
Results
Modelled scenario results. They are not forecasts.
R01720000 constant rand per permanently additional birth, free childcareIn the average run, the median cost of one permanently additional birth is about R720,000 for free childcare and R4.18 million for a parent tax exemption. The targeted family package costs about R780,000 per added birth and produces nearly 99,000 additional births per million prospective households.Average model run, seven stylised policies
R02-610000 constant rand, weak-labour-market net fiscal valueNet lifetime fiscal value of an additional person is negative R610,000 in the weak labour market, positive R190,000 in the average labour market, and positive R960,000 in the strong one. None of the programmes repays itself in the average case.Lifetime fiscal value by labour-market case
Sensitivity
- High · 2
- Moderate · 0
- Low · 0
Limitations
The largest payment is not the cheapest birth. A programme can pay households that would have had the child anyway, or it can only move the timing. The cost figures are medians from a stylised model, with wide 10th-to-90th percentile ranges in the manuscript.
Fertility policy is cheaper than ageing in this model only when the policy causes completed births, the future economy employs those children productively, and the new workers arrive before the fiscal emergency. Child support that does not cause extra births can still be poverty policy.
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Claims
Claims
Each claim names the assumptions it uses and the limitation that travels with it.
C01GSX:POP-006:C01In the average run, the median cost of one permanently additional birth ranges from about R720,000 for free childcare to R4.18 million for a parent tax exemption. The targeted family package costs about R780,000 per added birth and produces nearly 99,000 additional births per million prospective households. A cash top-up costs about R1.76 million per added birth and produces only about 12,000.Modelled · high sensitivity
C02GSX:POP-006:C02Net lifetime fiscal value of an additional person is negative R610,000 in the weak labour market, positive R190,000 in the average labour market, and positive R960,000 in the strong one. None of the modelled programmes repays itself in the average case.Modelled · high sensitivity
Sources and reproducibility
The PDF and complete Markdown source are both published.
Full manuscript: 5 600 words across 18 indexed headings. Source checksum: 14021498d3c2…. Code recorded: yes. Data recorded: yes. Environment recorded: no. Published files: 3. not recorded A public code repository is not published.
Community record · version 1.0
Published community record: 0 critiques, 0 forks, and 0 revisions.
Pakang Senosha is the author on this version. External review: none. A later critique or revision appears here after a person publishes it.
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Twelve connected studies of ageing, work, fertility, retirement, inheritance and fiscal pressure.