Today’s Unemployment Is Tomorrow’s Pension Crisis

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In these scenarios, private wealth at 60 is R4.84 million for a stable formal career, R3.99 million after a five-year youth shock, R3.09 million if entry waits until 30, R0.91 million for a mostly informal career, and R0.15 million under persistent exclusion. The amounts are constant 2026 rand and are anchored to the same R30,000 monthly opportunity at age 25.

GSX:POP-002:C01 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01Common earning opportunitySix representative lives run from age 20 to 100. Each has the same age-specific earning opportunity, anchored at R30,000 a month at age 25. Potential salary grows by 1.5 percent a year in real terms. Amounts are constant 2026 rand.high sensitivity

A02Formal saving and returnFormal workers save 15 percent and the private account earns a smooth 3 percent net real return. Retirement begins at 60. The private pension is price-indexed and calibrated to last through age 100.high sensitivity

A03Work historiesThe profiles differ by access to work: stable formal employment from 20, a five-year youth shock, entry only at 30, an interrupted career, mostly informal work, and persistent exclusion.high sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R01Six representative lives, private wealth at 60Private wealth at 60 is R4.84 million after a stable formal career, R3.99 million after a five-year youth shock, R3.09 million if work starts at 30, R0.91 million after a mostly informal career, and R0.15 million under persistent exclusion.modelled

Registered supporting sources

Today’s Unemployment Is Tomorrow’s Pension Crisis · GSX:POP-002:PDF

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These are conditional scenarios, not forecasts. Informal work is modelled as lower-paid work with weaker pension coverage, not as work without value. Years worked are not enough: earnings, coverage, and the contribution rate decide how much work becomes retirement wealth.