A01Common earning opportunitySix representative lives run from age 20 to 100. Each has the same age-specific earning opportunity, anchored at R30,000 a month at age 25. Potential salary grows by 1.5 percent a year in real terms. Amounts are constant 2026 rand.
Today’s Unemployment Is Tomorrow’s Pension Crisis
Youth unemployment followed across a lifetime and into old-age dependence.
PDF · 15 pages · 0.83 MB · 02.02 · GSX:POP-002
Study record · GSX:POP-002
How does youth unemployment, followed across a lifetime, become old-age dependence?
Evidence status: Modelled. Exploratory simulation. Version 1.0. Peer review: none. The paragraph under the title is the published summary.
Conditional answer · GSX:POP-002:C01
In these scenarios, private wealth at 60 is R4.84 million for a stable formal career, R3.99 million after a five-year youth shock, R3.09 million if entry waits until 30, R0.91 million for a mostly informal career, and R0.15 million under persistent exclusion. The amounts are constant 2026 rand and are anchored to the same R30,000 monthly opportunity at age 25.
Evidence status: Modelled. Sensitivity: high. Depends on GSX:POP-002:A01, GSX:POP-002:A02, GSX:POP-002:A03. These are conditional scenarios, not forecasts. Informal work is modelled as lower-paid work with weaker pension coverage, not as work without value. Years worked are not enough: earnings, coverage, and the contribution rate decide how much work becomes retirement wealth.
C01
Related questions
- How can today's unemployment become tomorrow's pension pressure?
- What happens to old-age income when early working years are spent unemployed?
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Assumptions
Assumptions
These are the registered model assumptions. A result stays conditional on the ones a claim names.
A02Formal saving and returnFormal workers save 15 percent and the private account earns a smooth 3 percent net real return. Retirement begins at 60. The private pension is price-indexed and calibrated to last through age 100.15 percent saved by formal workers
A03Work historiesThe profiles differ by access to work: stable formal employment from 20, a five-year youth shock, entry only at 30, an interrupted career, mostly informal work, and persistent exclusion.qualitative not a scalar
A04Simplified public top-upThe cash transfer is an analytical top-up, not the legal SASSA means test. Its maximum is R2,400 a month. Healthcare costs are held equal across profiles.2400 constant 2026 rand per month, maximum top-up
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Model
Model
The registered model statement. It is a scenario model, and the manuscript remains the full specification.
M01Lifetime cohort from 20 to 100The model follows six work histories that share an earning schedule and differ in employment, formality, saving, and effective tax contribution. Private assets build until 60 and are then drawn through age 100. The fiscal comparison holds healthcare costs equal so the gap comes from taxes and cash transfers.GSX:POP-002:M01
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Results
Results
Modelled scenario results. They are not forecasts.
R014840000 constant 2026 rand at age 60, stable formal careerPrivate wealth at 60 is R4.84 million after a stable formal career, R3.99 million after a five-year youth shock, R3.09 million if work starts at 30, R0.91 million after a mostly informal career, and R0.15 million under persistent exclusion.Six representative lives, private wealth at 60
R0282 percent of retirement cash incomeUnder persistent exclusion, the modelled grant is 82 percent of retirement cash income.Persistent exclusion, retirement income
R031800000000000 constant 2026 randOne million excluded lives produce a modelled lifetime fiscal balance R1.80 trillion weaker, mostly from missing revenue plus higher grants.One million persistently excluded lives
Sensitivity
- High · 2
- Moderate · 0
- Low · 0
Limitations
These are conditional scenarios, not forecasts. Informal work is modelled as lower-paid work with weaker pension coverage, not as work without value. Years worked are not enough: earnings, coverage, and the contribution rate decide how much work becomes retirement wealth.
The transfer is a simplified analytical top-up, not the legal social-grant means test. Healthcare costs are the same for every profile, so the model does not claim that unemployment itself causes ill health. The fiscal gap is missing tax capacity and greater cash-transfer exposure.
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Claims
Claims
Each claim names the assumptions it uses and the limitation that travels with it.
C01GSX:POP-002:C01In these scenarios, private wealth at 60 is R4.84 million for a stable formal career, R3.99 million after a five-year youth shock, R3.09 million if entry waits until 30, R0.91 million for a mostly informal career, and R0.15 million under persistent exclusion. The amounts are constant 2026 rand and are anchored to the same R30,000 monthly opportunity at age 25.Modelled · high sensitivity
C02GSX:POP-002:C02Under the persistent-exclusion profile, the modelled grant provides 82 percent of retirement cash income. Scaled to one million such lives, the manuscript reports a lifetime fiscal balance R1.80 trillion weaker, mostly from missing revenue plus higher grants.Modelled · high sensitivity
Sources and reproducibility
The PDF and complete Markdown source are both published.
Full manuscript: 3 236 words across 19 indexed headings. Source checksum: b18ff91d9aa5…. Code recorded: yes. Data recorded: yes. Environment recorded: no. Published files: 3. the published statement does not rely on a recorded random seed A public code repository is not published.
Community record · version 1.0
Published community record: 0 critiques, 0 forks, and 0 revisions.
Pakang Senosha is the author on this version. External review: none. A later critique or revision appears here after a person publishes it.
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