Today’s Unemployment Is Tomorrow’s Pension Crisis

C02

Under the persistent-exclusion profile, the modelled grant provides 82 percent of retirement cash income. Scaled to one million such lives, the manuscript reports a lifetime fiscal balance R1.80 trillion weaker, mostly from missing revenue plus higher grants.

GSX:POP-002:C02 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01Common earning opportunitySix representative lives run from age 20 to 100. Each has the same age-specific earning opportunity, anchored at R30,000 a month at age 25. Potential salary grows by 1.5 percent a year in real terms. Amounts are constant 2026 rand.high sensitivity

A03Work historiesThe profiles differ by access to work: stable formal employment from 20, a five-year youth shock, entry only at 30, an interrupted career, mostly informal work, and persistent exclusion.high sensitivity

A04Simplified public top-upThe cash transfer is an analytical top-up, not the legal SASSA means test. Its maximum is R2,400 a month. Healthcare costs are held equal across profiles.moderate sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R02Persistent exclusion, retirement incomeUnder persistent exclusion, the modelled grant is 82 percent of retirement cash income.modelled

R03One million persistently excluded livesOne million excluded lives produce a modelled lifetime fiscal balance R1.80 trillion weaker, mostly from missing revenue plus higher grants.modelled

Registered supporting sources

Today’s Unemployment Is Tomorrow’s Pension Crisis · GSX:POP-002:PDF

C02

The transfer is a simplified analytical top-up, not the legal social-grant means test. Healthcare costs are the same for every profile, so the model does not claim that unemployment itself causes ill health. The fiscal gap is missing tax capacity and greater cash-transfer exposure.