Consumption Today or Productive Capital Tomorrow?

C02

The average and worst industrial cases do not overtake the central transfer value by 2100 at 6 percent. At the 10 percent public-project benchmark, none of the industrial cases crosses by 2100.

GSX:SRD-003:C02 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01Shared envelope and welfare valuesThe comparison uses the R253.5 billion constant-2026-rand envelope and Paper 2's central welfare value of R426.9 billion, which is R358.2 billion in 2020 present value at 6 percent.moderate sensitivity

A02Central discount rateThe central comparison uses a 6 percent real discount rate. The paper also reports 3.5 percent and the 10 percent public-project benchmark.high sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R026 percent and 10 percent discount-rate testsAt 6 percent, best-case industrial value in 2050 is R485.7 billion in present value. Average industrial value is R152.3 billion, R205.9 billion short of the central transfer. At a 10 percent discount rate, none of the industrial cases crosses by 2100.modelled

Registered supporting sources

Consumption Today or Productive Capital Tomorrow? · GSX:SRD-003:PDF

C02

The discount rate does not change the factory's physical output. It changes how much present sacrifice the model treats as justified.