A01Shared envelope and welfare valuesThe comparison uses the R253.5 billion constant-2026-rand envelope and Paper 2's central welfare value of R426.9 billion, which is R358.2 billion in 2020 present value at 6 percent.
Consumption Today or Productive Capital Tomorrow?
The timing and distributional trade-off between relief and investment.
PDF · 24 pages · 1.55 MB · 03.03 · GSX:SRD-003
Study record · GSX:SRD-003
What is the timing and distributional trade-off between relief today and productive capital tomorrow?
Evidence status: Modelled. Counterfactual. Version 1.0. Peer review: none. The paragraph under the title is the published summary.
Conditional answer · GSX:SRD-003:C01
At a 6 percent real discount rate, the best industrial case overtakes the central value of the cash transfer in 2040 when the surviving public asset is counted, and in 2051 when only operating benefits are counted.
Evidence status: Modelled. Sensitivity: high. Depends on GSX:SRD-003:A01, GSX:SRD-003:A02, GSX:SRD-003:A03. There is no universal year when a factory becomes better than a cash transfer. The best case requires exceptional execution and a credible residual asset. The original households are not necessarily repaid even if the aggregate account later wins.
C01
Related questions
- Who bears the wait if grant spending is redirected toward investment?
- How does the R350 choice split between consumption and productive capital?
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Assumptions
Assumptions
These are the registered model assumptions. A result stays conditional on the ones a claim names.
A02Central discount rateThe central comparison uses a 6 percent real discount rate. The paper also reports 3.5 percent and the 10 percent public-project benchmark.6 percent real discount rate
A03Asset-inclusive testCounting the surviving public asset is legitimate only if the asset is viable, maintained, publicly owned and capable of being sold or of continuing to produce.qualitative not a scalar
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Model
Model
The registered model statement. It is a scenario model, and the manuscript remains the full specification.
M01Transfer versus industrial present-value comparisonThe model compares the present value of the grant's social benefits with the present value of the industrial alternative, using the shared R253.5 billion envelope and a stated real discount rate.GSX:SRD-003:M01
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Results
Results
Modelled scenario results. They are not forecasts.
R012040 break-even year, asset-inclusive best caseAt 6 percent, the best industrial case overtakes the central transfer value in 2040 if the surviving asset is counted, and in 2051 if only operating benefits are counted.Central comparison, 6 percent real discount rate
R02152.3 billion 2020 present-value rand, average industrial case in 2050At 6 percent, best-case industrial value in 2050 is R485.7 billion in present value. Average industrial value is R152.3 billion, R205.9 billion short of the central transfer. At a 10 percent discount rate, none of the industrial cases crosses by 2100.6 percent and 10 percent discount-rate tests
Sensitivity
- High · 2
- Moderate · 0
- Low · 0
Limitations
There is no universal year when a factory becomes better than a cash transfer. The best case requires exceptional execution and a credible residual asset. The original households are not necessarily repaid even if the aggregate account later wins.
The discount rate does not change the factory's physical output. It changes how much present sacrifice the model treats as justified.
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Claims
Claims
Each claim names the assumptions it uses and the limitation that travels with it.
C01GSX:SRD-003:C01At a 6 percent real discount rate, the best industrial case overtakes the central value of the cash transfer in 2040 when the surviving public asset is counted, and in 2051 when only operating benefits are counted.Modelled · high sensitivity
C02GSX:SRD-003:C02The average and worst industrial cases do not overtake the central transfer value by 2100 at 6 percent. At the 10 percent public-project benchmark, none of the industrial cases crosses by 2100.Modelled · high sensitivity
Sources and reproducibility
The PDF and complete Markdown source are both published.
Full manuscript: 6 029 words across 30 indexed headings. Source checksum: 7d84d0c44476…. Code recorded: yes. Data recorded: yes. Environment recorded: no. Published files: 3. the published statement does not rely on a recorded random seed A public code repository is not published.
Community record · version 1.0
Published community record: 0 critiques, 0 forks, and 0 revisions.
Pakang Senosha is the author on this version. External review: none. A later critique or revision appears here after a person publishes it.
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greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow
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