The Welfare Cost of Not Paying the Grant

R01

426.9 billion welfare-equivalent 2026 rand, central estimate

GSX:SRD-002:R01 · Modelled result · Version 1.0

Connected conditional claims

C01GSX:SRD-002:C01Withholding the SRD envelope has a central explicit welfare cost of R426.9 billion in welfare-equivalent 2026 rand, about R1.68 of social cost for every R1 withheld. The scenario range is R237 billion to R743 billion.high sensitivity

C02GSX:SRD-002:C02The average industrial outcome in the companion paper does not clear this central welfare hurdle. Only an exceptionally well-executed industrial programme clearly beats it, and the later beneficiaries are not automatically the households who gave up the grant.high sensitivity