The Welfare Cost of Not Paying the Grant

C01

Withholding the SRD envelope has a central explicit welfare cost of R426.9 billion in welfare-equivalent 2026 rand, about R1.68 of social cost for every R1 withheld. The scenario range is R237 billion to R743 billion.

GSX:SRD-002:C01 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01Same envelopeThe withheld resource is about R253.5 billion in constant 2026 purchasing power, the same base as the industrial-fund paper.moderate sensitivity

A02Distributional weightsIn the conservative, central and severe cases, R1 of consumption at the recipient margin is valued at R1.10, R1.50 and R2.00. The weights are normative assumptions.high sensitivity

A03No double-counting of local spendingThe local spending multiplier is reported separately and is not added into the welfare cost.moderate sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R01Central welfare caseThe explicit welfare-equivalent cost of withholding the envelope is between R237 billion and R743 billion. The central estimate is R426.9 billion, about R1.68 of social cost for every R1 withheld.modelled

Registered supporting sources

The Welfare Cost of Not Paying the Grant · GSX:SRD-002:PDF

C01

This is not a Treasury invoice, a forecast or a confidence interval. Crime, unrest and household dissolution are left outside the priced total. The central case is an analytical benchmark.