The South African Critical Minerals Industrial Complex

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On the manuscript's illustrative value pool, focused integration retains 66.3 percent, compared with 37.6 percent for the existing footprint and 81.4 percent for a frontier partnership case.

GSX:IND-001:C01 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01Illustrative value poolEach stage is assigned an illustrative share of total value added. The shares are a way to expose where value is assumed to remain local. They are not a forecast of GDP or company revenue.high sensitivity

A02Strategy casesThe comparison includes the existing footprint, focused integration, a frontier partnership case, and forced autarky after utilisation and market-access penalties.high sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R01Value-pool scenariosThe existing footprint retains about 37.6 percent of the modelled pool. Focused integration reaches 66.3 percent. A frontier case with successful technology partnerships reaches 81.4 percent.modelled

Registered supporting sources

The South African Critical Minerals Industrial Complex · GSX:IND-001:PDF

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These are not forecasts of GDP or company revenue. Geology is not industrial power: the manuscript distinguishes reserve shares from mined-production shares.