Research simulation · fictional money · no deposits, prizes or visitor wagers
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Make It Big · Complete result matrix

All sixteen cells.

Exact first-passage probabilities are the primary estimates. Seeded Monte Carlo results independently check the implementation.

Experimental cells

164 games × 4 strategies

Entrants per cell

100 000

Highest 36-month incidence

29,48%Controlled crash target · 20 bets × R50

Largest MC deviation

0.255 ppVersus exact probability
Probability of one gross R100,000-or-larger payout before each spending horizon
GameStrategyRTP12 mo exact36 mo exact36 mo simulatedWinners / 1,000Spend / observed winner
Controlled jackpot slot20 bets × R50720 maximum bets · 2 000× required96%6,39%17,97%17,98%179.8R 181 699
Controlled jackpot slot50 bets × R201 800 maximum bets · 5 000× required96%4,40%12,63%12,53%125.3R 269 022
Controlled jackpot slot100 bets × R103 600 maximum bets · 10 000× required96%2,96%8,61%8,65%86.5R 398 369
Controlled jackpot slot200 bets × R57 200 maximum bets · 20 000× required96%1,19%3,54%3,52%35.2R 1 005 309
Controlled crash target20 bets × R50720 maximum bets · 2 000× required97%10,99%29,48%29,50%295.0R 102 976
Controlled crash target50 bets × R201 800 maximum bets · 5 000× required97%10,99%29,48%29,49%294.9R 103 023
Controlled crash target100 bets × R103 600 maximum bets · 10 000× required97%10,99%29,48%29,25%292.5R 103 939
Controlled crash target200 bets × R57 200 maximum bets · 20 000× required97%10,99%29,48%29,28%292.8R 103 952
Controlled lottery tail20 bets × R50720 maximum bets · 2 000× required80%0,19%0,57%0,54%5.4R 6 624 418
Controlled lottery tail50 bets × R201 800 maximum bets · 5 000× required80%0,48%1,43%1,41%14.1R 2 538 564
Controlled lottery tail100 bets × R103 600 maximum bets · 10 000× required80%0,96%2,84%2,85%28.5R 1 244 041
Controlled lottery tail200 bets × R57 200 maximum bets · 20 000× required80%1,90%5,60%5,64%56.4R 619 792
Controlled virtual accumulator20 bets × R50720 maximum bets · 2 000× required90%10,24%27,68%27,51%275.1R 111 804
Controlled virtual accumulator50 bets × R201 800 maximum bets · 5 000× required90%10,24%27,68%27,93%279.3R 110 017
Controlled virtual accumulator100 bets × R103 600 maximum bets · 10 000× required90%10,24%27,68%27,61%276.1R 111 293
Controlled virtual accumulator200 bets × R57 200 maximum bets · 20 000× required90%10,24%27,68%27,64%276.4R 111 268

Range of outcomes

0,57% to 29,48%

That spread appears despite an identical R1,000 monthly cap. It is generated by the interaction between attempt count and the portion of each payout tail that can cross the fixed target.