Frozen protocol · v1.0.0
Exact probabilities, seeded paths.
The primary estimand is analytical. Monte Carlo verifies the implementation and supplies conditional winner-economics summaries.
Study design
Fixed spend, fixed target
- Gross target
- R 100 000
- Monthly budget
- R 1 000
- Maximum horizon
- 36 months
- Entrants per cell
- 100 000
- Cells
- 4 strategies × 4 games
Primary formula
1 − (1 − p)ⁿ
Cumulative incidence after n independent attempts with per-attempt target probability p.
- Survival
- (1 − p)ⁿ
- Target event
- First gross payout ≥ R100,000
- Exit rule
- Hit or spending horizon
Reproducibility
One seed, independent streams.
A geometric first-passage draw compresses redundant non-target wagers without changing the preregistered endpoint.
- Experiment ID
greyscienx-vc-make-it-big-v1.0- Configuration hash
3a5c1103424647456778442db8552422b2f9f094f7420af44fbf63bea9b781a4- Source hash
11542dbed3e79f5509521a4acec493e28a4e210439154e0c4e67236f262a756f- PRNG
- xoshiro128** with cyrb128 stream initialisation
npm run casino:make-it-big:test
npm run casino:make-it-big:generateKnown limits
What this model does not establish
- Synthetic entrants are not people.
- The four distributions are controlled models, not commercial product estimates.
- Gross target payout is not net profit or wealth.
- Independent wagers omit changing behaviour and voluntary exit.
- RTP does not determine target-hit probability by itself.
- Real-product estimates require verified product-specific paytables.