Research simulation · fictional money · no deposits, prizes or visitor wagers
Virtual Casino ResearchDownload data ↓

First-passage and competing horizons

Time until target—or spending cap.

Survival is the probability that no R100,000-or-larger gross payout has occurred by a given month. Cumulative incidence is one minus survival.

T
Number of months until the first target payout.
S(t)
Probability that the target has not been reached by month t.
1 − S(t)
Cumulative incidence of at least one target hit.
Competing horizon
R12,000 at month 12 or R36,000 at month 36 without a target.

96% theoretical RTP

Controlled jackpot slot

Controlled jackpot slot target-hit probability by monthExact cumulative incidence for all four fixed monthly budget strategies over 36 months.
20 bets × R5050 bets × R20100 bets × R10200 bets × R5
Controlled jackpot slot. Vertical scale reaches 18,0%; horizontal scale is 0–36 months.

97% theoretical RTP

Controlled crash target

Controlled crash target target-hit probability by monthExact cumulative incidence for all four fixed monthly budget strategies over 36 months.
20 bets × R5050 bets × R20100 bets × R10200 bets × R5
Controlled crash target. Vertical scale reaches 29,5%; horizontal scale is 0–36 months.

80% theoretical RTP

Controlled lottery tail

Controlled lottery tail target-hit probability by monthExact cumulative incidence for all four fixed monthly budget strategies over 36 months.
20 bets × R5050 bets × R20100 bets × R10200 bets × R5
Controlled lottery tail. Vertical scale reaches 5,6%; horizontal scale is 0–36 months.

90% theoretical RTP

Controlled virtual accumulator

Controlled virtual accumulator target-hit probability by monthExact cumulative incidence for all four fixed monthly budget strategies over 36 months.
20 bets × R5050 bets × R20100 bets × R10200 bets × R5
Controlled virtual accumulator. Vertical scale reaches 27,7%; horizontal scale is 0–36 months.

Winner timing and cost

Conditional summaries

Median timing is calculated among observed winners only. Population spend per winner retains all unsuccessful entrant paths in the denominator.

Seeded winner timing and population cost by cell
GameStrategyMedian monthsMedian spend before hit36-month no-hitPopulation spend / winner
Controlled jackpot slot20 bets × R5018.0R 17 15082,03%R 181 699
Controlled jackpot slot50 bets × R2018.0R 17 38087,37%R 269 022
Controlled jackpot slot100 bets × R1018.0R 17 82091,39%R 398 369
Controlled jackpot slot200 bets × R518.0R 17 51096,46%R 1 005 309
Controlled crash target20 bets × R5017.0R 16 35070,52%R 102 976
Controlled crash target50 bets × R2017.0R 16 44070,52%R 103 023
Controlled crash target100 bets × R1017.0R 16 29070,52%R 103 939
Controlled crash target200 bets × R517.0R 16 32070,52%R 103 952
Controlled lottery tail20 bets × R5019.0R 18 22599,43%R 6 624 418
Controlled lottery tail50 bets × R2018.0R 17 41098,57%R 2 538 564
Controlled lottery tail100 bets × R1019.0R 18 43097,16%R 1 244 041
Controlled lottery tail200 bets × R518.0R 17 72894,40%R 619 792
Controlled virtual accumulator20 bets × R5017.0R 16 30072,32%R 111 804
Controlled virtual accumulator50 bets × R2017.0R 16 54072,32%R 110 017
Controlled virtual accumulator100 bets × R1017.0R 16 33072,32%R 111 293
Controlled virtual accumulator200 bets × R517.0R 16 54572,32%R 111 268