Does Raising the Retirement Age Actually Work?

C01

In the average scenario, raising the comparison retirement age from 60 to 65 produces a cumulative modelled public gain of R213 billion for a one-million-person cohort. Age 70 produces R369 billion and age 75 produces R448 billion. The last five-year step adds R79 billion, about half the gain from moving from 65 to 70.

GSX:POP-003:C01 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01Comparison ageAge 60 is the common comparison point. Ages 65, 70, and 75 are policy experiments. They are not a description of one current retirement age for every occupation.moderate sensitivity

A02Average labour-market caseThe average public scenario follows a one-million-person cohort. It uses standard jobs, 85 percent older-worker productivity, and 0.15 net youth displacement for each additional older-worker job.high sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R01Average scenario, one-million-person cohort, versus retirement at 60Relative to retirement at 60, the average scenario produces a cumulative modelled public gain of R213 billion at 65, R369 billion at 70, and R448 billion at 75. The step from 70 to 75 adds R79 billion.modelled

Registered supporting sources

Does Raising the Retirement Age Actually Work? · GSX:POP-003:PDF