In the average scenario, raising the comparison retirement age from 60 to 65 produces a cumulative modelled public gain of R213 billion for a one-million-person cohort. Age 70 produces R369 billion and age 75 produces R448 billion. The last five-year step adds R79 billion, about half the gain from moving from 65 to 70.
Evidence status: Modelled. Sensitivity: high. Depends on GSX:POP-003:A01, GSX:POP-003:A02. This is a modelled public balance, not a forecast and not a recommendation that every occupation retire at one age. Age 65 is fiscally robust in the manuscript's three labour-market cases. Age 70 and age 75 need the employment and disability conditions stated in the paper. The gain can come from fewer years of old-age support as well as from extra tax-paying years.
C01
Related questions
What happens to a higher retirement age when younger workers are unemployed?
How do productivity and disability change the case for a later retirement age?
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Assumptions
Assumptions
These are the registered model assumptions. A result stays conditional on the ones a claim names.
A01Comparison ageAge 60 is the common comparison point. Ages 65, 70, and 75 are policy experiments. They are not a description of one current retirement age for every occupation.60 years, baseline retirement age
A02Average labour-market caseThe average public scenario follows a one-million-person cohort. It uses standard jobs, 85 percent older-worker productivity, and 0.15 net youth displacement for each additional older-worker job.0.15 youth jobs displaced per additional older job
A03Continuous private saverThe private-pension path follows a continuously employed saver earning R30,000 a month at 25. Real wages grow by 1.5 percent, 15 percent is contributed, and the account earns a smooth 3 percent real return. The pension is designed to last through age 100.15 percent contributed
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Model
Model
The registered model statement. It is a scenario model, and the manuscript remains the full specification.
M01Retirement-age cohortOne exercise follows a continuously employed private saver. The other follows one million people from 60 to the tested retirement age, with occupation-specific wages, capacity, and disability. Public results are cumulative balances against retirement at 60. Youth job-years use the scenario's displacement assumption.GSX:POP-003:M01
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Results
Results
Modelled scenario results. They are not forecasts.
R01213000000000 constant rand, cumulative public gain at age 65Relative to retirement at 60, the average scenario produces a cumulative modelled public gain of R213 billion at 65, R369 billion at 70, and R448 billion at 75. The step from 70 to 75 adds R79 billion.Average scenario, one-million-person cohort, versus retirement at 60
R020.50 million youth job-years at a retirement age of 65The same average scenario produces 0.50 million lost youth job-years at 65, 0.79 million at 70, and 0.85 million at 75.Average scenario, 0.15 displacement per older job
R0317223 constant rand per month at retirement age 60For the continuously employed saver, modelled monthly private pension income is R17,223 at a retirement age of 60, R23,309 at 65, R31,727 at 70, and R43,839 at 75.Continuous formal employment, pension through age 100
Sensitivity
High · 2
Moderate · 1
Low · 0
Limitations
This is a modelled public balance, not a forecast and not a recommendation that every occupation retire at one age. Age 65 is fiscally robust in the manuscript's three labour-market cases. Age 70 and age 75 need the employment and disability conditions stated in the paper. The gain can come from fewer years of old-age support as well as from extra tax-paying years.
The youth figures are the result of assuming that each additional older-worker job displaces 0.15 of a youth job after demand, skill, and job-creation effects. They are not an observed count of lost jobs. A different displacement assumption changes the result.
The continuous-employment path is the strongest private case and the easiest to overstate. The manuscript's mixed-occupation path is lower because not everyone keeps a job after 60. A larger balance at a later age can coexist with years of weak earnings before the pension can be drawn.
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Claims
Claims
Each claim names the assumptions it uses and the limitation that travels with it.
C01GSX:POP-003:C01In the average scenario, raising the comparison retirement age from 60 to 65 produces a cumulative modelled public gain of R213 billion for a one-million-person cohort. Age 70 produces R369 billion and age 75 produces R448 billion. The last five-year step adds R79 billion, about half the gain from moving from 65 to 70.Modelled · high sensitivity
C02GSX:POP-003:C02Under that same average scenario, the later retirement ages are associated with 0.50 million lost youth job-years at 65, 0.79 million at 70, and 0.85 million at 75.Modelled · high sensitivity
C03GSX:POP-003:C03For a saver who remains continuously employed, the model's monthly private pension is R17,223 if retirement is at 60, R23,309 at 65, R31,727 at 70, and R43,839 at 75.Modelled · moderate sensitivity
Sources and reproducibility
The PDF and complete Markdown source are both published.
Full manuscript: 3 395 words across 15 indexed headings. Source checksum: 689633f7e00b…. Code recorded: yes. Data recorded: yes. Environment recorded: no. Published files: 3. the published statement does not rely on a recorded random seed A public code repository is not published.
