Does Raising the Retirement Age Actually Work?

C02

Under that same average scenario, the later retirement ages are associated with 0.50 million lost youth job-years at 65, 0.79 million at 70, and 0.85 million at 75.

GSX:POP-003:C02 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01Comparison ageAge 60 is the common comparison point. Ages 65, 70, and 75 are policy experiments. They are not a description of one current retirement age for every occupation.moderate sensitivity

A02Average labour-market caseThe average public scenario follows a one-million-person cohort. It uses standard jobs, 85 percent older-worker productivity, and 0.15 net youth displacement for each additional older-worker job.high sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R02Average scenario, 0.15 displacement per older jobThe same average scenario produces 0.50 million lost youth job-years at 65, 0.79 million at 70, and 0.85 million at 75.modelled

Registered supporting sources

Does Raising the Retirement Age Actually Work? · GSX:POP-003:PDF

C02

The youth figures are the result of assuming that each additional older-worker job displaces 0.15 of a youth job after demand, skill, and job-creation effects. They are not an observed count of lost jobs. A different displacement assumption changes the result.