Extreme Fiscal Pressure

M01

2050 shock and emergency-rule paths

GSX:POP-012:M01 · Model specification · Version 1.0

Connected conditional claims

C01GSX:POP-012:C01Every modelled path closes the first-year accounting gap of about R1.23 trillion. In the guardrailed case that ends in 2052, real output in 2080 is 1.2 percent below the no-shock path and the present value of lost output from 2050 to 2080 is R3.7 trillion.high sensitivity

C02GSX:POP-012:C02The extended executive emergency makes the official debt ratio look no worse than the no-shock path by 2080, while hidden claims rise to 35 percent of GDP, real output ends 21 percent lower, and private pension wealth is 39 percent lower.high sensitivity

C03GSX:POP-012:C03The permanent-suspension path shows an official debt ratio of 70 percent of GDP together with an augmented public burden of 165 percent of GDP and real output 42 percent below the no-shock path.high sensitivity