The Price of Another Child

M01

Additional-birth cost model

GSX:POP-006:M01 · Model specification · Version 1.0

Connected conditional claims

C01GSX:POP-006:C01In the average run, the median cost of one permanently additional birth ranges from about R720,000 for free childcare to R4.18 million for a parent tax exemption. The targeted family package costs about R780,000 per added birth and produces nearly 99,000 additional births per million prospective households. A cash top-up costs about R1.76 million per added birth and produces only about 12,000.high sensitivity

C02GSX:POP-006:C02Net lifetime fiscal value of an additional person is negative R610,000 in the weak labour market, positive R190,000 in the average labour market, and positive R960,000 in the strong one. None of the modelled programmes repays itself in the average case.high sensitivity