The R350 Industrialisation Counterfactual

C01

If the SRD envelope of about R253.5 billion in constant 2026 rand had been reprioritised into an industrial fund, the best case holds about R789 billion in productive assets by 2050 and generates roughly R39 billion a year in public cash. The annual cash flow exceeds one current SRD budget year only around 2049.

GSX:SRD-001:C01 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01Programme envelopeThe envelope from 2020/21 through the 2026/27 allocation is R225.8 billion in nominal rand, about R253.5 billion in constant 2026 purchasing power. Later years include a revised estimate and a voted allocation, not only cash already spent.moderate sensitivity

A02Reprioritised fundThe published asset paths withhold the grant and place the revenue in a ring-fenced fund. They do not describe the borrowed-fund case, which adds an asset and a matching liability.high sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R01Best case, 2050By 2050 the best-case industrial fund holds about R789 billion in productive assets and generates roughly R39 billion a year in public cash, in 2026 rand.modelled

Registered supporting sources

The R350 Industrialisation Counterfactual · GSX:SRD-001:PDF

C01

The envelope is a counterfactual resource, not yet a factory. The best case depends on projects being selected, built, operated and renewed for decades. This paper does not value what households would have lost if the grant had never been paid.