If the SRD envelope of about R253.5 billion in constant 2026 rand had been reprioritised into an industrial fund, the best case holds about R789 billion in productive assets by 2050 and generates roughly R39 billion a year in public cash. The annual cash flow exceeds one current SRD budget year only around 2049.
Evidence status: Modelled. Sensitivity: high. Depends on GSX:SRD-001:A01, GSX:SRD-001:A02. The envelope is a counterfactual resource, not yet a factory. The best case depends on projects being selected, built, operated and renewed for decades. This paper does not value what households would have lost if the grant had never been paid.
C01
Related questions
What might South Africa have built with the SRD grant budget?
How does an industrialisation counterfactual compare with paying the R350 grant?
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Assumptions
Assumptions
These are the registered model assumptions. A result stays conditional on the ones a claim names.
A01Programme envelopeThe envelope from 2020/21 through the 2026/27 allocation is R225.8 billion in nominal rand, about R253.5 billion in constant 2026 purchasing power. Later years include a revised estimate and a voted allocation, not only cash already spent.253.5 billion constant 2026 rand
A02Reprioritised fundThe published asset paths withhold the grant and place the revenue in a ring-fenced fund. They do not describe the borrowed-fund case, which adds an asset and a matching liability.qualitative not a scalar
A03Welfare is not counted hereThe model does not count food, transport, health protection, debt service or local demand purchased by the grant. That loss is the subject of the companion welfare paper.qualitative not a scalar
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Model
Model
The registered model statement. It is a scenario model, and the manuscript remains the full specification.
M01SRD industrial-fund counterfactualThe model restates the 2020/21-2026/27 SRD programme envelope in constant 2026 rand and follows best, average and worst industrial-fund paths to 2050. The asset paths use the reprioritised-fund version of the counterfactual.GSX:SRD-001:M01
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Results
Results
Modelled scenario results. They are not forecasts.
R01789 billion constant 2026 rand of productive assetsBy 2050 the best-case industrial fund holds about R789 billion in productive assets and generates roughly R39 billion a year in public cash, in 2026 rand.Best case, 2050
R02304 billion constant 2026 rand of productive assetsBy 2050 the average case reaches roughly R304 billion in productive assets and R9 billion in annual public cash. The worst case reaches R72 billion and R0.7 billion a year.Average case, 2050
Sensitivity
High · 2
Moderate · 0
Low · 0
Limitations
The envelope is a counterfactual resource, not yet a factory. The best case depends on projects being selected, built, operated and renewed for decades. This paper does not value what households would have lost if the grant had never been paid.
These paths are the reprioritised-fund counterfactual. A borrowed fund would also carry a matching liability, and neither path is automatically superior to having paid the grant.
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Claims
Claims
Each claim names the assumptions it uses and the limitation that travels with it.
C01GSX:SRD-001:C01If the SRD envelope of about R253.5 billion in constant 2026 rand had been reprioritised into an industrial fund, the best case holds about R789 billion in productive assets by 2050 and generates roughly R39 billion a year in public cash. The annual cash flow exceeds one current SRD budget year only around 2049.Modelled · high sensitivity
C02GSX:SRD-001:C02The average case reaches roughly R304 billion in productive assets and R9 billion in annual public cash by 2050. The worst case reaches R72 billion and R0.7 billion a year.Modelled · high sensitivity
Sources and reproducibility
The PDF and complete Markdown source are both published.
Full manuscript: 5 647 words across 41 indexed headings. Source checksum: 45b388b09178…. Code recorded: yes. Data recorded: yes. Environment recorded: no. Published files: 3. the published statement does not rely on a recorded random seed A public code repository is not published.
