The R350 Industrialisation Counterfactual

C02

The average case reaches roughly R304 billion in productive assets and R9 billion in annual public cash by 2050. The worst case reaches R72 billion and R0.7 billion a year.

GSX:SRD-001:C02 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01Programme envelopeThe envelope from 2020/21 through the 2026/27 allocation is R225.8 billion in nominal rand, about R253.5 billion in constant 2026 purchasing power. Later years include a revised estimate and a voted allocation, not only cash already spent.moderate sensitivity

A02Reprioritised fundThe published asset paths withhold the grant and place the revenue in a ring-fenced fund. They do not describe the borrowed-fund case, which adds an asset and a matching liability.high sensitivity

A03Welfare is not counted hereThe model does not count food, transport, health protection, debt service or local demand purchased by the grant. That loss is the subject of the companion welfare paper.high sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R02Average case, 2050By 2050 the average case reaches roughly R304 billion in productive assets and R9 billion in annual public cash. The worst case reaches R72 billion and R0.7 billion a year.modelled

Registered supporting sources

The R350 Industrialisation Counterfactual · GSX:SRD-001:PDF

C02

These paths are the reprioritised-fund counterfactual. A borrowed fund would also carry a matching liability, and neither path is automatically superior to having paid the grant.