The Capital-Goods Economy

C01

In the central catch-up case, a weighted 6.7 percent equipment share produces about US$262 billion of South African equipment sales over twenty-five years and about US$201 billion of value retained in South Africa.

GSX:IND-005:C01 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01Central manufacturing pathIn the central catch-up case, African manufacturing value added grows from a rounded US$300 billion in 2025 to about US$1.14 trillion in 2050. Factory-equipment purchases average 24 percent of manufacturing value added.high sensitivity

A02South African shareThe central portfolio uses a weighted 6.7 percent South African share of equipment demand, with category shares from 3 to 10 percent.high sensitivity

A03Lifecycle ratiosSpares, maintenance and refurbishment equal 4.5 percent of the surviving installed base each year. Software, training and finance add 1.8 percent.moderate sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R01Central catch-up case, 2026-2050The central case produces a cumulative capital-goods market of US$3.89 trillion and about US$262 billion of South African equipment sales over twenty-five years, in constant 2024 dollars.modelled

R02Central case after removing non-South-African inputsLifecycle revenue is about US$105 billion. Cumulative value retained in South Africa is approximately US$201 billion, about US$8.0 billion a year on average, with an illustrative 80,000 direct jobs.modelled

Registered supporting sources

The Capital-Goods Economy · GSX:IND-005:PDF