A01Central manufacturing pathIn the central catch-up case, African manufacturing value added grows from a rounded US$300 billion in 2025 to about US$1.14 trillion in 2050. Factory-equipment purchases average 24 percent of manufacturing value added.
04 · Strategic Industrialisation
The Capital-Goods Economy
The equipment, capabilities and supplier networks behind durable industrialisation.
PDF · 29 pages · 1.48 MB · 04.05 · GSX:IND-005
Study record · GSX:IND-005
What equipment, capabilities, and supplier networks sit behind durable industrialisation?
Evidence status: Modelled. Exploratory simulation. Version 1.0. Peer review: none. The paragraph under the title is the published summary.
Conditional answer · GSX:IND-005:C01
In the central catch-up case, a weighted 6.7 percent equipment share produces about US$262 billion of South African equipment sales over twenty-five years and about US$201 billion of value retained in South Africa.
Evidence status: Modelled. Sensitivity: high. Depends on GSX:IND-005:A01, GSX:IND-005:A02, GSX:IND-005:A03. The paths are scenarios, not forecasts, and the retained value cannot be added mechanically to a GDP forecast. Some of this activity already exists. The result is a scale test of a selected machinery and service position, not a claim that South Africa should make every final product.
C01
Related questions
- Why do capital goods determine whether industrialisation lasts?
- What supplier base does a capital-goods economy require?
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Assumptions
Assumptions
These are the registered model assumptions. A result stays conditional on the ones a claim names.
A02South African shareThe central portfolio uses a weighted 6.7 percent South African share of equipment demand, with category shares from 3 to 10 percent.6.7 percent of equipment demand
A03Lifecycle ratiosSpares, maintenance and refurbishment equal 4.5 percent of the surviving installed base each year. Software, training and finance add 1.8 percent.4.5 percent of the surviving installed base per year
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Model
Model
The registered model statement. It is a scenario model, and the manuscript remains the full specification.
M01African capital-goods scale testThe model follows three African manufacturing paths from 2026 to 2050, applies equipment-purchase ratios and South African market shares, then adds lifecycle revenue and removes imported or non-South-African inputs.GSX:IND-005:M01
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Results
Results
Modelled scenario results. They are not forecasts.
R01262 billion constant 2024 US dollars of equipment salesThe central case produces a cumulative capital-goods market of US$3.89 trillion and about US$262 billion of South African equipment sales over twenty-five years, in constant 2024 dollars.Central catch-up case, 2026-2050
R02201 billion constant 2024 US dollars retained in South AfricaLifecycle revenue is about US$105 billion. Cumulative value retained in South Africa is approximately US$201 billion, about US$8.0 billion a year on average, with an illustrative 80,000 direct jobs.Central case after removing non-South-African inputs
Sensitivity
- High · 2
- Moderate · 0
- Low · 0
Limitations
The paths are scenarios, not forecasts, and the retained value cannot be added mechanically to a GDP forecast. Some of this activity already exists. The result is a scale test of a selected machinery and service position, not a claim that South Africa should make every final product.
Demography alone does not buy machines. The domestic machinery base is also described as eroding, so the share is not assured.
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Claims
Claims
Each claim names the assumptions it uses and the limitation that travels with it.
C01GSX:IND-005:C01In the central catch-up case, a weighted 6.7 percent equipment share produces about US$262 billion of South African equipment sales over twenty-five years and about US$201 billion of value retained in South Africa.Modelled · high sensitivity
C02GSX:IND-005:C02Under the drift case, cumulative equipment demand is US$1.80 trillion. The industrial-surge case reaches US$7.11 trillion. The opportunity depends on African industrialisation actually occurring.Modelled · high sensitivity
Sources and reproducibility
The PDF and complete Markdown source are both published.
Full manuscript: 6 279 words across 56 indexed headings. Source checksum: 663767038d2f…. Code recorded: yes. Data recorded: yes. Environment recorded: no. Published files: 3. the published statement does not rely on a recorded random seed A public code repository is not published.
Community record · version 1.0
Published community record: 0 critiques, 0 forks, and 0 revisions.
Pakang Senosha is the author on this version. External review: none. A later critique or revision appears here after a person publishes it.
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