A01Upstream positionUSGS figures used in the manuscript put 2025 South African platinum mine output at about 120,000 kilograms, roughly 71 percent of reported world output, with about 63 million kilograms of PGM reserves.
04 · Strategic Industrialisation
The Platinum-to-Hydrogen Economy
A value-chain model connecting platinum reserves to a hydrogen industrial base.
PDF · 29 pages · 1.97 MB · 04.02 · GSX:IND-002
Study record · GSX:IND-002
How can platinum reserves connect to a hydrogen industrial base?
Evidence status: Modelled. Exploratory simulation. Version 1.0. Peer review: none. The paragraph under the title is the published summary.
Conditional answer · GSX:IND-002:C01
The manuscript's industrial conclusion is a qualified PGM-component platform, with complete electrolysers and hydrogen exports only where customers, technology partners and low-cost electricity are already contracted.
Evidence status: Modelled. Sensitivity: moderate. Depends on GSX:IND-002:A01. Platinum ownership creates leverage, not automatic competitiveness. Most complete-system revenue pays for non-PGM components and services. The metal and system values are alternatives, not a sum.
C01
Related questions
- What value chain runs from platinum to a hydrogen economy?
- How does hydrogen industrialisation use South Africa's platinum endowment?
2
Assumptions
Assumptions
These are the registered model assumptions. A result stays conditional on the ones a claim names.
A02Central hydrogen projectThe central 100 MW illustration uses R8 billion of integrated capital, 65 percent utilisation and electricity at R0.75 per kWh.0.75 rand per kWh
1
Model
Model
The registered model statement. It is a scenario model, and the manuscript remains the full specification.
M01Selective platinum-to-hydrogen chainThe model separates refined-metal value, component value and complete-system value, and it costs one central 100 MW hydrogen project.GSX:IND-002:M01
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Results
Results
Modelled scenario results. They are not forecasts.
R0138600 US dollars per kilogram of refined metal in the modelIn the model, one kilogram is worth about USD38,600 as refined metal and can enable USD3.2 million of complete fuel-cell systems. The endpoints are alternatives, not a sum.Refined metal versus complete fuel-cell systems
R028.25 US dollars per kilogram of hydrogenThe central 100 MW project breaks even near USD8.25 per kilogram of hydrogen.Central 100 MW project
Sensitivity
- High · 1
- Moderate · 1
- Low · 0
Limitations
Platinum ownership creates leverage, not automatic competitiveness. Most complete-system revenue pays for non-PGM components and services. The metal and system values are alternatives, not a sum.
Nearby platinum does not make hydrogen cheap. A different electricity price or utilisation rate moves the break-even.
2
Claims
Claims
Each claim names the assumptions it uses and the limitation that travels with it.
C01GSX:IND-002:C01The manuscript's industrial conclusion is a qualified PGM-component platform, with complete electrolysers and hydrogen exports only where customers, technology partners and low-cost electricity are already contracted.Modelled · moderate sensitivity
C02GSX:IND-002:C02Under the central project assumptions, a 100 MW hydrogen plant breaks even near USD8.25 per kilogram. Capital utilisation and the power price dominate the electrolyser's PGM value.Modelled · high sensitivity
Sources and reproducibility
The PDF and complete Markdown source are both published.
Full manuscript: 7 021 words across 49 indexed headings. Source checksum: 5c196c59993b…. Code recorded: yes. Data recorded: yes. Environment recorded: no. Published files: 3. the published statement does not rely on a recorded random seed A public code repository is not published.
Community record · version 1.0
Published community record: 0 critiques, 0 forks, and 0 revisions.
Pakang Senosha is the author on this version. External review: none. A later critique or revision appears here after a person publishes it.
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greyscienx.com/research/strategic-industrialisation/the-platinum-to-hydrogen-economy
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