Cities
Studies of urban form, financial centres, and infrastructure when population or African city growth changes.
Related questions
- What happens to house prices when population declines?
- Can housing scarcity persist while population falls?
- How should cities and infrastructure adjust when a country shrinks?
- What would make Johannesburg Africa's financial capital?
- How do continental growth and local institutions shape Johannesburg's financial role?
- What industrial role does South Africa have in African urbanisation?
- Which city-building goods could a South African factory system supply?
Relevant claims
- GSX:POP-009: In the central scenario, a 22.2 percent population decline by 2076 coincides with 3.5 percent more households. The same run can still produce a shortage of roughly 54,000 habitable homes after the city has lost 266,000 people.
- GSX:AFR-002: In the central regional-hub scenario, an 8 percent capture share produces about US$90.4 billion of cumulative financial-services revenue and about US$71.2 billion of value retained in South Africa.
- GSX:AFR-003: In the central build-out, South African-linked firms record US$264 billion of cumulative gross sales and about US$137 billion of domestic value added over twenty-five years.
Major assumptions
- Central hub shares · high sensitivity · GSX:AFR-002
- Central shrinkage path · high sensitivity · GSX:POP-009
- Contestable share and retention · high sensitivity · GSX:AFR-003
- Hypothetical Gauteng-scale city-region · high sensitivity · GSX:POP-009
- Urban anchor · moderate sensitivity · GSX:AFR-003
- Starting financial depth · low sensitivity · GSX:AFR-002
Datasets
- How to Shrink a Country Without Breaking It · GSX:POP-009
- Johannesburg as Africa’s Financial Capital · GSX:AFR-002
- The Factory for African Urbanisation · GSX:AFR-003
Connected topics