Cities

Related questions

• What happens to house prices when population declines?
• Can housing scarcity persist while population falls?
• How should cities and infrastructure adjust when a country shrinks?
• What would make Johannesburg Africa's financial capital?
• How do continental growth and local institutions shape Johannesburg's financial role?
• What industrial role does South Africa have in African urbanisation?
• Which city-building goods could a South African factory system supply?

Relevant claims

• GSX:POP-009: In the central scenario, a 22.2 percent population decline by 2076 coincides with 3.5 percent more households. The same run can still produce a shortage of roughly 54,000 habitable homes after the city has lost 266,000 people.
• GSX:AFR-002: In the central regional-hub scenario, an 8 percent capture share produces about US$90.4 billion of cumulative financial-services revenue and about US$71.2 billion of value retained in South Africa.
• GSX:AFR-003: In the central build-out, South African-linked firms record US$264 billion of cumulative gross sales and about US$137 billion of domestic value added over twenty-five years.

Major assumptions

• Central hub shares · high sensitivity · GSX:AFR-002
• Central shrinkage path · high sensitivity · GSX:POP-009
• Contestable share and retention · high sensitivity · GSX:AFR-003
• Hypothetical Gauteng-scale city-region · high sensitivity · GSX:POP-009
• Urban anchor · moderate sensitivity · GSX:AFR-003
• Starting financial depth · low sensitivity · GSX:AFR-002

Datasets

• How to Shrink a Country Without Breaking It · GSX:POP-009
• Johannesburg as Africa’s Financial Capital · GSX:AFR-002
• The Factory for African Urbanisation · GSX:AFR-003