A01Extended healthy adulthoodThe scenario asks what changes if people routinely live to 100 or 120 with a substantial extension of healthy adult life. Current South African life expectancy is far shorter. This is not a projection that the average person will soon live to 120.
The Hundred-Year Life
Education, work, housing and family life redesigned for 100–120 year lives.
PDF · 23 pages · 1.10 MB · 02.07 · GSX:POP-007
Study record · GSX:POP-007
How would education, work, housing, and family life be redesigned for lives of 100 to 120 years?
Evidence status: Modelled. Exploratory simulation. Version 1.0. Peer review: none. The paragraph under the title is the published summary.
Conditional answer · GSX:POP-007:C01
If a conventional life retires at 65 and the person lives to 120, retirement lasts 55 years and the modelled pension finances only 57 percent of the target income, even with uninterrupted employment.
Evidence status: Modelled. Sensitivity: high. Depends on GSX:POP-007:A01, GSX:POP-007:A02, GSX:POP-007:A03. South Africans do not currently live to 100 or 120 on average. The scenario explores extended healthy adulthood, not a forecast. If healthspan does not rise with lifespan, the financial results deteriorate and the care burden rises. A manual worker without stable work cannot simply be told to work to 85.
C01
Related questions
- What happens to housing when people live longer?
- How do longer lives change work, education, and family timing?
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Assumptions
Assumptions
These are the registered model assumptions. A result stays conditional on the ones a claim names.
A02Common starting pay and savingAll four lives begin with the same R30,000 monthly salary when work starts. Earnings grow by 1.2 percent a year above inflation. Pension contributions are 15 percent of pay and earn 4 percent a year above inflation. Values are constant 2026 rand.30000 constant 2026 rand per month at the start of work
A03Conventional three-stage lifeThe conventional life has three years of university, 42 years of full work, and retirement at 65. If the person lives to 120, retirement lasts 55 years.65 years, conventional retirement age
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Model
Model
The registered model statement. It is a scenario model, and the manuscript remains the full specification.
M01Four life-course designsThe model compares a conventional three-stage life, a long career, a multi-stage life with recurring education and a care break, and a portfolio life. It measures earnings and net fiscal contribution in constant 2026 rand under one extended healthy adulthood.GSX:POP-007:M01
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Results
Results
Modelled scenario results. They are not forecasts.
R0157 percent of target retirement income financedEven with uninterrupted employment, the conventional pension fund finances only 57 percent of the target income if retirement at 65 is followed by life to 120.Conventional three-stage life, life to 120
R0212.71 million constant 2026 rand, long-career lifetime earningsPresent-value lifetime earnings are R8.99 million for the conventional life, R12.71 million for the long career, R11.18 million for the multi-stage life, and R10.84 million for the portfolio life. Net fiscal contribution runs from R0.80 million to R1.99 million.Four life designs from age 20 to 120
Sensitivity
- High · 1
- Moderate · 1
- Low · 0
Limitations
South Africans do not currently live to 100 or 120 on average. The scenario explores extended healthy adulthood, not a forecast. If healthspan does not rise with lifespan, the financial results deteriorate and the care burden rises. A manual worker without stable work cannot simply be told to work to 85.
The long career is the strongest narrow financial result because it maximises paid work. It assumes that health, employer demand, and working conditions permit a very long career. It is not automatically the best life.
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Claims
Claims
Each claim names the assumptions it uses and the limitation that travels with it.
C01GSX:POP-007:C01If a conventional life retires at 65 and the person lives to 120, retirement lasts 55 years and the modelled pension finances only 57 percent of the target income, even with uninterrupted employment.Modelled · high sensitivity
C02GSX:POP-007:C02Of the four designs, the long career has the highest modelled lifetime earnings, R12.71 million in present value, against R8.99 million for the conventional life. The multi-stage and portfolio designs sit between them, at R11.18 million and R10.84 million.Modelled · moderate sensitivity
Sources and reproducibility
The PDF and complete Markdown source are both published.
Full manuscript: 5 624 words across 26 indexed headings. Source checksum: 0a3d7ef5ec9d…. Code recorded: yes. Data recorded: yes. Environment recorded: no. Published files: 3. the published statement does not rely on a recorded random seed A public code repository is not published.
Community record · version 1.0
Published community record: 0 critiques, 0 forks, and 0 revisions.
Pakang Senosha is the author on this version. External review: none. A later critique or revision appears here after a person publishes it.
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