A01Same R1 million, different arrival ageThe model compares one R1 million transfer received at 40, 55, 70, or 85, plus a living transfer at 35. If it stays invested until age 100, only the arrival age and the real return change. The illustrated values exclude tax, fees, and consumption.
Inheritance After Retirement
The economic value of inheritance arriving at 40, 55, 70 or 85.
PDF · 20 pages · 1.03 MB · 02.08 · GSX:POP-008
Study record · GSX:POP-008
What is the economic difference when inheritance arrives at 40, 55, 70, or 85?
Evidence status: Modelled. Exploratory simulation. Version 1.0. Peer review: none. The paragraph under the title is the published summary.
Conditional answer · GSX:POP-008:C01
If R1 million remains invested until age 100 at 4 percent above inflation, a living transfer at 35 becomes R12.80 million, an inheritance at 40 becomes R10.52 million, at 55 R5.84 million, at 70 R3.24 million, and at 85 R1.80 million, in constant 2026 rand.
Evidence status: Modelled. Sensitivity: high. Depends on GSX:POP-008:A01, GSX:POP-008:A02. These values exclude tax, fees, and consumption so that timing stays visible. The manuscript does not claim that 70 is today's average age of inheritance in South Africa. If the heir spends the money, or if returns differ by owner, the age-100 values do not apply.
C01
Related questions
- How does the age at which inheritance arrives change its economic value?
- What happens to inheritance when retirement and longer lives move bequests later?
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Assumptions
Assumptions
These are the registered model assumptions. A result stays conditional on the ones a claim names.
A02Average return and starting payThe recipient starts work at 25 on R30,000 a month. Real pay grows by 1.2 percent a year. Capital earns 4 percent above inflation in the average case. Values are constant 2026 rand.4 percent real return per year
A03Clean compounding caseIf parents and children earn the same return, pay no tax, never consume the asset, and can borrow freely, family wealth does not depend on which generation legally holds the capital.qualitative not a scalar
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Model
Model
The registered model statement. It is a scenario model, and the manuscript remains the full specification.
M01Inheritance timing mapOne transfer is compounded to age 100 under alternative arrival ages and real returns. The map isolates timing. It does not estimate the current South African age at which people inherit.GSX:POP-008:M01
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Results
Results
Modelled scenario results. They are not forecasts.
R0110.52 million constant 2026 rand at age 100, inheritance at 40At 4 percent real, R1 million kept invested until age 100 becomes R12.80 million if received at 35, R10.52 million at 40, R5.84 million at 55, R3.24 million at 70, and R1.80 million at 85.Average 4 percent real return, no tax, fees, or consumption
R0232.99 million constant 2026 rand at age 100, 6 percent, received at 40The same inheritance received at 40 is worth R3.28 million by age 100 at 2 percent real and R32.99 million at 6 percent real. Received at 85, those three returns narrow to R1.35 million, R1.80 million, and R2.40 million.Return sensitivity at ages 40 and 85
Sensitivity
- High · 1
- Moderate · 1
- Low · 0
Limitations
These values exclude tax, fees, and consumption so that timing stays visible. The manuscript does not claim that 70 is today's average age of inheritance in South Africa. If the heir spends the money, or if returns differ by owner, the age-100 values do not apply.
The second statement is the manuscript's qualification of the pure compounding result. It is not a measured rand gap for every family. Control, tax, and credit constraints are the reasons timing matters once the clean case is dropped.
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Claims
Claims
Each claim names the assumptions it uses and the limitation that travels with it.
C01GSX:POP-008:C01If R1 million remains invested until age 100 at 4 percent above inflation, a living transfer at 35 becomes R12.80 million, an inheritance at 40 becomes R10.52 million, at 55 R5.84 million, at 70 R3.24 million, and at 85 R1.80 million, in constant 2026 rand.Modelled · high sensitivity
C02GSX:POP-008:C02Under equal returns, no tax, no consumption, and free borrowing, the same family wealth results wherever the capital sits. Timing still changes what a young adult can do, because a transfer at 35 or 40 can meet a deposit, debt, education, or career constraint that a transfer at 70 or 85 arrives too late to change.Modelled · moderate sensitivity
Sources and reproducibility
The PDF and complete Markdown source are both published.
Full manuscript: 5 095 words across 26 indexed headings. Source checksum: 83a9a3899ad2…. Code recorded: yes. Data recorded: yes. Environment recorded: no. Published files: 3. the published statement does not rely on a recorded random seed A public code repository is not published.
Community record · version 1.0
Published community record: 0 critiques, 0 forks, and 0 revisions.
Pakang Senosha is the author on this version. External review: none. A later critique or revision appears here after a person publishes it.
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