In the central mixed portfolio, R225 billion of public industrial capital mobilises R506 billion of gross investment, 2.25 times the public envelope. After deductions, R383 billion remains operating, 1.70 times the envelope.
Evidence status: Modelled. Sensitivity: high. Depends on GSX:SRD-004:A01, GSX:SRD-004:A02, GSX:SRD-004:A03. A multiplier is a description of a capital stack, not money created. Guarantees can show a high cash multiple while leaving the downside with the state. The multiples are not observed South African averages.
C01
Related questions
What public-capital multiplier is at issue when grant-scale funds finance productive assets?
How can state investment become lasting capacity rather than a one-round expenditure?
3
Assumptions
Assumptions
These are the registered model assumptions. A result stays conditional on the ones a claim names.
A01Public envelopeThe arithmetic uses R225 billion of public industrial capital.225 billion rand of public industrial capital
A02Mixed portfolioThe central portfolio spreads that capital across infrastructure, concessional debt, minority equity, first-loss capital, a guarantee reserve, project preparation, skills and supplier funds.qualitative not a scalar
A03Gross is not additionalCapital that would have been invested anyway, or that is delayed, unallocated or failed, is removed before the operating multiple is stated.qualitative not a scalar
1
Model
Model
The registered model statement. It is a scenario model, and the manuscript remains the full specification.
M01Public-capital mobilisation portfolioThe model allocates R225 billion of public industrial capital across instruments and then deducts capital judged non-additional, delayed, unallocated or failed.GSX:SRD-004:M01
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Results
Results
Modelled scenario results. They are not forecasts.
R012.25 gross rand of investment per rand of public capitalThe central mixed portfolio mobilises R506 billion of gross investment, a headline multiple of 2.25.Central mixed portfolio
R021.70 operating rand per rand of public capitalAfter non-additional, delayed, unallocated and failed capital, R383 billion remains operating, 1.70 times the public envelope.Central portfolio after deductions
Sensitivity
High · 1
Moderate · 1
Low · 0
Limitations
A multiplier is a description of a capital stack, not money created. Guarantees can show a high cash multiple while leaving the downside with the state. The multiples are not observed South African averages.
Maximising a single headline ratio is the comparison the paper rejects. Common infrastructure can have low measured leverage and high additionality.
2
Claims
Claims
Each claim names the assumptions it uses and the limitation that travels with it.
C01GSX:SRD-004:C01In the central mixed portfolio, R225 billion of public industrial capital mobilises R506 billion of gross investment, 2.25 times the public envelope. After deductions, R383 billion remains operating, 1.70 times the envelope.Modelled · high sensitivity
C02GSX:SRD-004:C02The manuscript's portfolio conclusion is a gross mobilisation range of roughly 1.5 to 2.5 times, judged by net additional operating investment, development value and risk-adjusted public cost.Modelled · moderate sensitivity
Sources and reproducibility
The PDF and complete Markdown source are both published.
Full manuscript: 3 374 words across 30 indexed headings. Source checksum: 7212206ca00e…. Code recorded: yes. Data recorded: yes. Environment recorded: no. Published files: 3. the published statement does not rely on a recorded random seed A public code repository is not published.
