Social grants

Studies of the SRD grant budget, the cost of withholding it, and other uses of the same funds.

Related questions

What might South Africa have built with the SRD grant budget?
How does an industrialisation counterfactual compare with paying the R350 grant?
What is the welfare cost of withholding the SRD grant?
Which social costs sit outside a productive-capital account of the grant budget?
Who bears the wait if grant spending is redirected toward investment?
How does the R350 choice split between consumption and productive capital?
What does a factory programme at R200 billion scale contain?
How is grant-scale public money represented as industrial plant?

Relevant claims

GSX:SRD-001: If the SRD envelope of about R253.5 billion in constant 2026 rand had been reprioritised into an industrial fund, the best case holds about R789 billion in productive assets by 2050 and generates roughly R39 billion a year in public cash. The annual cash flow exceeds one current SRD budget year only around 2049.
GSX:SRD-002: Withholding the SRD envelope has a central explicit welfare cost of R426.9 billion in welfare-equivalent 2026 rand, about R1.68 of social cost for every R1 withheld. The scenario range is R237 billion to R743 billion.
GSX:SRD-003: At a 6 percent real discount rate, the best industrial case overtakes the central value of the cash transfer in 2040 when the surviving public asset is counted, and in 2051 when only operating benefits are counted.
GSX:SRD-005: A credible R225 billion programme could establish 34 industrial modules and, in the central case, support about 11,100 direct operating jobs, roughly 10,000 supplier jobs and R108 billion of annual sales.

Major assumptions

Datasets

Connected topics