South Africa

Studies whose published scope is South Africa, its cities, public finances, households, or industrial base.

Topic JSON All research

Related questions

What is the lifetime household comparison between living together and maintaining separate households?
How does the timing of cohabitation change the cost of living and saving?
How does living with parents during the first years of employment compare with paying rent for a separate household?
What is the lifetime wealth comparison between delaying car ownership and buying a car at first employment?
Under what conditions does retirement at 60 remain financially viable?
How do ageing and lifetime finances constrain retirement at a fixed age?
How can today's unemployment become tomorrow's pension pressure?
What happens to old-age income when early working years are spent unemployed?

Relevant claims

GSX:HH-001: For two Gauteng adults bringing home R30,000 and R20,000 a month, combining households at 25 rather than 35 leaves about R3.972 million more combined household wealth at 75 in the average scenario, in constant 2026 rand. The direct living-cost saving is about R1.059 million. The larger gap comes from investing that earlier saving and from avoiding expensive negative balances.
GSX:HH-002: In the central middle-salary Johannesburg scenario, living in the family home and delaying a car purchase for three years creates R602,000 more modelled net capital at age 25, and R3.32 million more modelled wealth at age 60, than moving out and financing a car immediately. The age-60 figure holds when the gap is preserved on the manuscript's common post-25 path.
GSX:POP-001: In this funded-account model, a worker who starts at 25 on R30,000 a month, contributes 12 percent, and earns a 3 percent net real return exhausts a pension equal to 60 percent of final salary around age 70 if retirement begins at 60 and life lasts to 90.
GSX:POP-002: In these scenarios, private wealth at 60 is R4.84 million for a stable formal career, R3.99 million after a five-year youth shock, R3.09 million if entry waits until 30, R0.91 million for a mostly informal career, and R0.15 million under persistent exclusion. The amounts are constant 2026 rand and are anchored to the same R30,000 monthly opportunity at age 25.
GSX:POP-003: In the average scenario, raising the comparison retirement age from 60 to 65 produces a cumulative modelled public gain of R213 billion for a one-million-person cohort. Age 70 produces R369 billion and age 75 produces R448 billion. The last five-year step adds R79 billion, about half the gain from moving from 65 to 70.
GSX:POP-004: In the 2025 calibration, people aged 60 or older are 15.1 percent of adults but 20.7 percent of votes cast. Applying the 2024 age-turnout pattern produces a median voter aged 43, four years older than the median adult.
GSX:POP-005: Among five packages that each close a hypothetical R150 billion annual ageing gap, the balanced transition has the lowest modelled welfare-loss index, 64.5. The low-visible-pain package, which leans on inflation, diffuse cuts, and continuing borrowing, scores 107.3 and leaves about R720 billion of emergency debt after ten years.
GSX:POP-006: In the average run, the median cost of one permanently additional birth ranges from about R720,000 for free childcare to R4.18 million for a parent tax exemption. The targeted family package costs about R780,000 per added birth and produces nearly 99,000 additional births per million prospective households. A cash top-up costs about R1.76 million per added birth and produces only about 12,000.
GSX:POP-007: If a conventional life retires at 65 and the person lives to 120, retirement lasts 55 years and the modelled pension finances only 57 percent of the target income, even with uninterrupted employment.
GSX:POP-008: If R1 million remains invested until age 100 at 4 percent above inflation, a living transfer at 35 becomes R12.80 million, an inheritance at 40 becomes R10.52 million, at 55 R5.84 million, at 70 R3.24 million, and at 85 R1.80 million, in constant 2026 rand.
GSX:POP-009: In the central scenario, a 22.2 percent population decline by 2076 coincides with 3.5 percent more households. The same run can still produce a shortage of roughly 54,000 habitable homes after the city has lost 266,000 people.
GSX:POP-010: In the average case, a smaller resident workforce can still coincide with real GDP at an index of 151, because output per worker rises about 57 percent. The total workforce ends at 11.60 million after 75,000 young immigrants a year and 700,000 additional older workers.
GSX:POP-011: Demographic pressure, in this synthesis, is rarely a shortage of people in the abstract. It is a failure of timing, matching and institutions. Income can arrive after it is useful, workers can exist outside the jobs that need them, homes can stand in the wrong places, and reform can begin after the cheaper options have expired.
GSX:POP-012: Every modelled path closes the first-year accounting gap of about R1.23 trillion. In the guardrailed case that ends in 2052, real output in 2080 is 1.2 percent below the no-shock path and the present value of lost output from 2050 to 2080 is R3.7 trillion.
GSX:SRD-001: If the SRD envelope of about R253.5 billion in constant 2026 rand had been reprioritised into an industrial fund, the best case holds about R789 billion in productive assets by 2050 and generates roughly R39 billion a year in public cash. The annual cash flow exceeds one current SRD budget year only around 2049.
GSX:SRD-002: Withholding the SRD envelope has a central explicit welfare cost of R426.9 billion in welfare-equivalent 2026 rand, about R1.68 of social cost for every R1 withheld. The scenario range is R237 billion to R743 billion.
GSX:SRD-003: At a 6 percent real discount rate, the best industrial case overtakes the central value of the cash transfer in 2040 when the surviving public asset is counted, and in 2051 when only operating benefits are counted.
GSX:SRD-004: In the central mixed portfolio, R225 billion of public industrial capital mobilises R506 billion of gross investment, 2.25 times the public envelope. After deductions, R383 billion remains operating, 1.70 times the envelope.
GSX:SRD-005: A credible R225 billion programme could establish 34 industrial modules and, in the central case, support about 11,100 direct operating jobs, roughly 10,000 supplier jobs and R108 billion of annual sales.
GSX:IND-001: On the manuscript's illustrative value pool, focused integration retains 66.3 percent, compared with 37.6 percent for the existing footprint and 81.4 percent for a frontier partnership case.
GSX:IND-002: The manuscript's industrial conclusion is a qualified PGM-component platform, with complete electrolysers and hydrogen exports only where customers, technology partners and low-cost electricity are already contracted.
GSX:IND-003: The manuscript's first expansion is a qualified 30,000-tonne-a-year HPMSM platform linked to firm offtake, with partner-led cathode production and a later, conditional 4 to 6 GWh cell plant.
GSX:IND-004: Under the paper's central assumptions, vanadium redox flow batteries reach lifetime cost parity with lithium iron phosphate at about sixteen hours of duration.
GSX:IND-005: In the central catch-up case, a weighted 6.7 percent equipment share produces about US$262 billion of South African equipment sales over twenty-five years and about US$201 billion of value retained in South Africa.
GSX:IND-006: Under the central rule, the fund reaches about R586 billion by 2060 and transfers about R16 billion that year, rising to R1.48 trillion and R43 billion by 2125, in constant 2026 rand.
GSX:AFR-001: If the rest of Africa grows at 4.2 percent and South Africa at 3.5 percent, the manuscript's central scenario has South African GDP at about US$981 billion, real GDP per person up roughly 109 percent, and the continental GDP share down from 13.8 to 11.9 percent.
GSX:AFR-002: In the central regional-hub scenario, an 8 percent capture share produces about US$90.4 billion of cumulative financial-services revenue and about US$71.2 billion of value retained in South Africa.
GSX:AFR-003: In the central build-out, South African-linked firms record US$264 billion of cumulative gross sales and about US$137 billion of domestic value added over twenty-five years.
GSX:WPL-001: For matched descendants, the central scenario produces median marketable net worth after forty years of R3.67 million with a titled township home and R5.24 million with a middle-value suburban home. The difference is R1.57 million, in constant 2024 rand.