Independent research

Topic

Industrialisation

Studies of productive capital, mineral value chains, and public investment in durable capacity.

Topic JSONAll research

Related questions

  • What might South Africa have built with the SRD grant budget?
  • How does an industrialisation counterfactual compare with paying the R350 grant?
  • Who bears the wait if grant spending is redirected toward investment?
  • How does the R350 choice split between consumption and productive capital?
  • What public-capital multiplier is at issue when grant-scale funds finance productive assets?
  • How can state investment become lasting capacity rather than a one-round expenditure?
  • What does a factory programme at R200 billion scale contain?
  • How is grant-scale public money represented as industrial plant?

Relevant claims

  • GSX:SRD-001: If the SRD envelope of about R253.5 billion in constant 2026 rand had been reprioritised into an industrial fund, the best case holds about R789 billion in productive assets by 2050 and generates roughly R39 billion a year in public cash. The annual cash flow exceeds one current SRD budget year only around 2049.
  • GSX:SRD-003: At a 6 percent real discount rate, the best industrial case overtakes the central value of the cash transfer in 2040 when the surviving public asset is counted, and in 2051 when only operating benefits are counted.
  • GSX:SRD-004: In the central mixed portfolio, R225 billion of public industrial capital mobilises R506 billion of gross investment, 2.25 times the public envelope. After deductions, R383 billion remains operating, 1.70 times the envelope.
  • GSX:SRD-005: A credible R225 billion programme could establish 34 industrial modules and, in the central case, support about 11,100 direct operating jobs, roughly 10,000 supplier jobs and R108 billion of annual sales.
  • GSX:IND-001: On the manuscript's illustrative value pool, focused integration retains 66.3 percent, compared with 37.6 percent for the existing footprint and 81.4 percent for a frontier partnership case.
  • GSX:IND-002: The manuscript's industrial conclusion is a qualified PGM-component platform, with complete electrolysers and hydrogen exports only where customers, technology partners and low-cost electricity are already contracted.
  • GSX:IND-003: The manuscript's first expansion is a qualified 30,000-tonne-a-year HPMSM platform linked to firm offtake, with partner-led cathode production and a later, conditional 4 to 6 GWh cell plant.
  • GSX:IND-004: Under the paper's central assumptions, vanadium redox flow batteries reach lifetime cost parity with lithium iron phosphate at about sixteen hours of duration.
  • GSX:IND-005: In the central catch-up case, a weighted 6.7 percent equipment share produces about US$262 billion of South African equipment sales over twenty-five years and about US$201 billion of value retained in South Africa.
  • GSX:IND-006: Under the central rule, the fund reaches about R586 billion by 2060 and transfers about R16 billion that year, rising to R1.48 trillion and R43 billion by 2125, in constant 2026 rand.
  • GSX:AFR-003: In the central build-out, South African-linked firms record US$264 billion of cumulative gross sales and about US$137 billion of domestic value added over twenty-five years.

Major assumptions

Datasets

11

studies

Studies

The question each study asks, with its stable identifier.

Connected topics